Norwegian Risk Forum 2017

As the Arab Spring challenged decades-long leadership structures across the Middle East a series of new wars, conflicts and terrorist organizations emerged. While many analysts mistakenly state that the Middle East collapses we observe a dynamic region in a transformative period where new alliances and geopolitical lineages emerge yet the centuries-old Sunni-Shia rivalry command Iranian and Saudi foreign and security policies.

As the war in Syria entered its seventh year negotiations in Astana and Geneva sought to accomplish a comprehensive political solution. The battle against ISIS in Mosul and attack on ISIS’ headquarter in Raqqa transform their organized structure into smaller terrorist cells.

The Gulf States attract, facilitate and channel large investments regionally and globally. While Saudi Arabia wages war against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen they also plan the largest IPO in history as Saudi Aramco prepares to sell 5 % of its shares to create a 2 trillion USD fund to diversify the Saudi economy. Iran experiences surging investments after signing the JCPOA in 2016, which removed the UN-backed sanctions.

Turkey remains an important regional economic power although the failed coup in June 2016 revealed internal rivalries. Egypt which ousted Mubarak, then elected Morsi before nationwide protests heralded General Sisi’s reign received large IMF loans to stabilize its economy while fighting IS on the Sinai Peninsula and its border to Libya.

The Middle East’s unique geostrategic location between Europe, Asia and Africa gravitate its trading, shipping and logistical epicenter in the global economy.

We experienced a rewarding Norwegian Risk Forum 2017 with leading experts, officials and participants at NRCI’s 8th annual international Norwegian Risk Forum 2017 at the Grand Hotel in Oslo on October 19.