Geopolitical Horizon
Geopolitical Horizon videos every geopolitical issues, trends and dynamics worldwide. With informative, balanced and nuanced analysis, you gain insights into the most current and emerging issues on the geopolitical horizon in world affairs presented by NRCI’s founder and chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen.
Russia, Belarus and Ukraine - Geopolitical Dynamics and Strategic Forecast
In this video, NRCI Founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen examines geopolitical dynamics in the situation between Poland and Belarus and between Russia and Ukraine, and how these issues are connected. He also examines the potential for a military escalation, and what would trigger such a development.
Watch videos every Wednesday on GlobalHorizon with our three video-series: Asian Horizon, Geopolitical Horizon and African Horizon
Request availability for speaking engagements and advisory sessions with NRCI founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen – client@nrci.no
#GeopoliticalHorizon is a weekly NRCI original series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments around the world.
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Russia, Belarus and Ukraine - Geopolitical Dynamics and Strategic Forecast
In this video, NRCI Founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen examines geopolitical dynamics in the situation between Poland and Belarus and between Russia and Ukraine, and how these issues are connected. He also examines the potential for a military escalation, and what would trigger such a development.
Watch videos every Wednesday on GlobalHorizon with our three video-series: Asian Horizon, Geopolitical Horizon and African Horizon
Request availability for speaking engagements and advisory sessions with NRCI founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen – client@nrci.no
#GeopoliticalHorizon is a weekly NRCI original series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments around the world.
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Geopolitics Prevents Cop26 Success
In this video NRCI Founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen examines why geopolitics prevents Cop26 success.
Subscribe to Global Horizon: https://lnkd.in/d7zAw6x Global Horizon is NRCI´s YouTube Channel
Watch videos every Wednesday on GlobalHorizon with our three video-series: Asian Horizon, Geopolitical Horizon and African Horizon
Request availability for speaking engagements and advisory sessions with NRCI founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen – client@nrci.no
#GeopoliticalHorizon is a weekly NRCI original series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments around the world
Wednesday, November 3, 2021
Russia-Iran Strategic Partnership
Subscribe to Global Horizon: https://lnkd.in/d7zAw6x Global Horizon is NRCI´s YouTube Channel
#GlobalHorizon Weekly Program Schedule: Asian Horizon – Every Monday Geopolitical Horizon – Every Wednesday African Horizon – Every Friday
Request availability for speaking engagements and advisory sessions with NRCI founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen – client@nrci.no
#GeopoliticalHorizon is a weekly NRCI original series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments around the world.
#GeopoliticalHorizon, #Russia, #Iran
Wednesday, October 13, 2021
Global Energy Crisis
In this program he examines the current global energy crisis. Presently gas prices increase substantially driving electricity prices impacting countries particularly across Europe and Asia. In France and the UK some factories stopped production recently. In the coming months the Northern Hemisphere heads into the winter season driving electricity needs as private homes need heating.
In China we now see electricity cuts implemented in a range of cities as there is lack of access to gas and coal. This global energy crisis could spill into social unrest driving political risks if people cannot pay their bills, and if companies and factories have to stop production driving layoffs.
This global energy turbulence likely continues to varying degree in the coming months and years. With the transition to renewable energy and the new economy we also likely see an interim period in which access to enough energy to drive economies remains an issue.
Wednesday, October 6, 2021
North Korea - Missile Tests and Risk Dynamics
In this program he examines the situation in North Korea after the recent ballistic and hypersonic missile tests. The geopolitical theater around North Korea remains tense due to these continued missile tests, which most likely will not stop until the US changes its sanctions policy towards North Korea. The US should rethink its foreign policy towards North Korea to contribute to a change in the security environment and geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia. The situation remains particularly concerning for Japan, South Korea, China, and the wider region.
Wednesday, September 29, 2021
UN High Level Meetings - World Facing Geopolitical and Strategic Stress Test
In this program he examines the geopolitical and strategic stress test facing the world today as the UN meets for its annual High Level Week in New York. Last night President Xi presented that China will no longer invest in coal-powered projects around the world. President Biden followed up by saying that the US will double its investments in climate projects around the world using its aid structure. The question is will the US be able to solve global climate issues using its aid structure., That is not necessarily going to solve the global climate issues. Rather to solve the global issues facing the world today – the world needs more investments in infrastructure and industrial development around the world and China is currently driving that with its global One Belt One Road strategy.
Currently the world faces three major strategic issues driving geopolitical challenges around the world: The global climate challenge, the global Corona pandemic and major poverty which continues to plague large parts of the world driving conflicts, wars, and growing refugee crisis across Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Only by investing in infrastructure, industrial development and energy access will people see job opportunities, economic growth and hope in their home countries. That will be critical going forward to slow down the growing refugee crisis around the world.
Wednesday, September 22, 2021
US Sanctions Policy Drives China's Rise and Geopolitical Space
In this program he examines how US sanctions policy drives China´s rise and geopolitical space. When the US imposes sanctions on various countries, then these countries look for other partners – we see this over the years for example with Russia and Iran now developing closer relations with China. Earlier this year China and Iran signed a 25-year strategic agreement and China and Russia now continue to deepen their strategic partnership.
US foreign policy and media circles do not seem reflect on this inadvertent geopolitical consequence of continued US sanctions. Moreover, the Biden administration does not appear to plan any major changes in the application of US sanctions policy.
Consequently, US sanctions policy continues to drive countries toward China also in the future.
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
US Foreign Policy after NATO Exit from Afghanistan
In this program he examines US foreign policy after NATO´s exit from Afghanistan. What is the direction of US foreign policy in the future? How will US foreign policy impact relations with Europe, the Middle East, Asia and China and other countries? Does the US have the relevant strategic tools and architecture to build economic, trade and infrastructure around the world in the future? What results will US foreign policy deliver going forward? Will US foreign policy maintain US pre-eminence globally? You gain insights into these and other questions in this program.
Wednesday, September 1, 2021
Future of European-US Relations
In this program he examines the future of European-US relations in a long-term perspective. What is the long-term outlook for relations between Europe and the US? What factors may impact the relationship? We see internal divisions emerging among political, military and security circles in European capitals and the US after President Biden decided to withdraw the remaining 2,500 soldiers from Afghanistan. European countries feel the US made a unilateral decision without listening to European concerns about withdrawing to early, when the military mission in Afghanistan started with a collective Article 5 decision in NATO.
The Biden administration also maintains the 25 % steel and 10 % aluminium tariffs imposed on Europe by President Trump. These are only a few of the factors impacting European-US relations currently. During President Trump´s administration we saw the potential for deep divisions between Europe and the US. Should President Trump or another Republican president with similar policy and ideological tendencies win the 2024 US presidential election, we likely see similar tensions re-emerging between Europe and the US.
The US Senate recently passed a 1 trillion USD infrastructure bill to invest in the US. This and other recent internal and external commercial and strategic policy initiatives combined with an inward trend in US foreign policy decision-making reflect a growing long-term trajectory in US strategic direction. This change in US strategic direction combined with the growing focus on China and Asia, and less focus on Europe in strategic circles in the US, reflect the beginning of a separation in the long-term outlook between Europe and the US.
Although European-US relations likely remain stable in the coming years, we may see deeper divisions emerging between Europe and the US in the long term. Over the coming 10 – 25 year period we may see Europe and the US slowly slide apart strategically.
Wednesday, August 25, 2021
Climate Change: Scenarios and Strategic Forecast
In this program he shares some scenarios and strategic forecast on climate change. On Monday the IPCC released a new very serious and damning report indicating more extreme weather and further climate disruptions in the coming years and decades. The question is will the world be able to change course to reach the necessary climate change goals? The world´s inability to coordinate and collaborate on vaccination during the global Corona pandemic is a sign indicating how challenging it is for the world to cooperate and coordinate on global issues.
People live in extreme poverty in large parts of the world and that is a major challenge. While countries are responsible for their own economic and political development, we also see countries influenced and subjugated by other countries throughout history through colonization, wars and in other ways. This cause many countries to suffer from extreme poverty and major development challenges.
We will also see more wars in the coming years and decades and this will set countries back, and after these wars end they will seek to redevelop, which again requires more energy and need for economic development to rebuild. These never-ending cycles show how the world continues to evolve in historical cycles, and this may take the world in a direction we do not want to be in terms of climate change.
However, it is still possible for countries, companies and organizations to change course, but that will require major efforts in terms of collaboration, coordination, planning and facilitation within countries, regionally and globally.
Wednesday, August 11, 2021
JCPOA Negotiations and Iran
In this program he examines the potential for resumed JCPOA negotiations after Ebrahim Raisi is inducted as new president of Iran tomorrow. Iran said it wants guarantees that all US sanctions will be lifted if they enter a new JCPOA agreement. The US negotiation team´s analysis assumes that the Iranians are so desperate to get a new JCPOA agreement to get some sanctions relief that the Iranians will relent. However is this analysis right? Iran appears more resilient than the US may think, and while US sanctions damaged Iran´s economy, the Iranian economy is stronger and more dynamic than the US seem to realize.
JCPOA negotiations most likely resume in the coming weeks or months. In the event that there is no agreement, risks increase again in the region. However, Iran said that if it is attacked militarily, then Iran will retaliate and there will be a full blown war. Therefore, it remains to be seen which direction this takes going forward.
Wednesday, August 4, 2021
Oil Price, Geopolitical Shocks and Cyber Attacks
In this program he examines the increasing oil price and the factors that could impact the oil price going forward. The energy transition lowers investments in oil and gas which drives the oil price up. Combined with potential geopolitical shocks and cyber attacks we likely see increased volatility in energy markets going forward.
The recent Colonial pipeline cyber attack on the East Coast in the US also showed the vulnerability in US energy infrastructure, particularly on the East Coast. Higher oil prices combined with carbon management programs and higher taxes drive gas prices up which may also increase political risks in a range of countries. We may see the oil price reach 100 USD this year or next year. The oil price could also drop, therefore volatility should be expected going forward.
Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Russia-US Relations -- Strategic Forecast
In this program he examines Russia-US relations as President Putin and President Biden meet in Geneva today. Currently, Russia-US relations remain at a low point. This most likely continues. President Biden and his administration underestimates Russia. Russia diversified its economy towards China, other Asian countries, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and therefore, relies less on the US. President Biden´s continued threats against Russia only strengthens Russia´s resolve to shift its focus away from the US.
In addition, even if President Biden presents his administration´s red lines towards Russia as he stated he would in their meeting in Geneva today, there is little the US can do. If the US imposes more sanctions against Russia, then Russia reciprocates and the strategic shift towards China deepens.
Wednesday, June 16, 2021
A Fateful Error in NATO´s Exit Strategy in Afghanistan
In this program he shares some reflections on a fateful error in NATO´s exit strategy in Afghanistan. Now that NATO pulls out and ends its 20 year military mission in Afghanistan we need to ask some important questions: What has NATO achieved in Afghanistan? Has NATO been able to build strategic relevance, strategic presence and a strategic foundation to be a part of Afghanistan´s future and economic future? The answer is NATO has not been able to achieve that.
What could NATO have done differently with its exit strategy to build strategic relevance, strategic presence and a strategic foundation to be a part of Afghanistan´s future? NATO should have developed a strategic infrastructure master plan with financial, industrial and infrastructure partners to develop energy projects, railways, highways, special economic zones, and logistics clusters across Afghanistan. That would have given NATO strategic relevance, strategic presence and a strategic foundation in Afghanistan´s future and economic future.
On May 19, Russian Railways Chief Oleg Belozerov signed an agreement to design a railway that will stretch from Uzbekistan across Afghanistan to Pakistan. That shows Russia´s ability to maintain strategic relevance in Afghanistan and the region.
Wednesday, June 9, 2021
How to Avoid Corruption
In this program he shares a few key thoughts on how to avoid corruption. This program is relevant for companies, financial firms, investors and other business entities planning to invest or conduct business around the world. Companies need to build a robust and resilient culture with integrity on all levels with zero tolerance against corruption.
Wednesday, June 2, 2021
Colombia - Risk Assessment
In this program he examines the political situation in Colombia in South America. In late April a protest movement emerged against a tax reform, which was dropped by President Duque and his government. However, the protests did not calm down and changed into a movement against social injustice, police violence and extreme poverty. Road blockades prevent exports and transportation of goods, and the political situation remains tense. On Monday this week the National Strike Committee and the government reached a pre-agreement, a first step towards negotiations. However, going forward the government needs to show an ability to implement policies and reforms that drive real change to calm the situation.
Wednesday, May 26, 2021
War between Israel and Hamas - Strategic Assessment
In this program he provides a strategic assessment of the war between Israel and Hamas. He reflects on various questions and examines what needs to happen for peace and stability to develop in the region in the long-term. Why is Hamas shooting rockets at Israel? How long will this war continue? What are the implications of this war? Unless Israel and the Palestinians are able to reach a two-state solution with Jerusalem as the capital for both countries, this situation with recurring wars between Israel and Hamas will only continue. That only creates permanent conflict for Israel and the Palestinians. Therefore, the only way to create long-term peace and stability is for the Israeli government and Hamas to cease hostilities immediately, and for the Israeli government and the Palestinians to start final status negotiations toward a two-state solution as quickly as possible. Consequently, when Israel recognizes a Palestinian state and a Palestinian state recognizes Israel we will see a new future in the region.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Part 3: Operational Level
In this program he presents part 3 of a three-part series focusing on leadership. In this video he focuses on the operational level and specifically the country manager´s role when operating on the ground across Africa, Asia, the Middle East or Latin America. He shares his insights on what you should look for when you recruit a country manager, and what it is important for a country manager to understand and focus on. This program is useful for global companies or corporations operating around the world, or companies planning to start international operations in one or several countries.
Wednesday, May 12, 2021
Leadership Series - Part 2: Executive Level
In this program he presents part 2 of a three-part series focusing on leadership. In this video he focuses on the exeutive level. He provides one key recommendation: Companies should have a Chief Geopolitical Officer (CGO) in the executive leadership group. A CGO should have a range of functions, and he explains a few key functions. This video is useful to those companies which seek to strengthen their geopolitical competence and capacity on the executive leadership level. With a CGO, companies increase their ability to coordinate, communicate and facilitate increased geopolitical understanding and insights on different levels inside and outside the organization.
Wednesday, May 5, 2021
Leadership Series - Part 1: Board Level
In this program he presents part 1 of a three-part series focusing on leadership. In this first video he focuses on the board level. He recommends that global companies and internationally focused companies should have a board member with knowledge, experience and an understanding for geopolitical affairs, dynamics and risks. This is relevant and useful when board of directors follow up existing business operations, and when they plan new international business expansion before making their Final Investment Decision (FID).
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Part 3: US Strategy - Rethinking North Korea
In this program he presents part 3 of a three-part series focusing on US Strategy. He examines and explains how consecutive US administrations continued a US strategy towards North Korea with sanctions and pressure. However this did not lead to its main intended result – namely that the North Korean government should relinquish its nuclear program. Rather this US strategy had a counterproductive result, which led to North Korea only increasing and advancing its nuclear, ballistic and military buildup. Therefore, he suggests that the Biden administration should rethink US strategy towards North Korea.
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Part 2: US Strategy - Sanctions and Strategic Thinking
In this program he presents part 2 of a three-part series focusing on US Strategy. He examines US sanctions and strategic thinking. He explains how US sanctions lead countries to shift their focus toward China and other countries, and how this is counterproductive to US national interests. He argues that the US should change its strategic thinking and engage with countries such as Iran, China and Russia rather than use sanctions. When challenges arise in bilateral relations, the US may realize that it accomplishes more when relations are functional and working as the US may then engage, instead of when using sanctions. The recent strategic agreement signed by China and Iran is an example in point. Iran shifts focus towards China after experiencing US sanctions for years.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021
Part 1 - US Strategy, The American Jobs Plan & Central America
In this program he presents part 1 of a three-part series focusing on US Strategy. He examines US strategy and The American Jobs Plan, which he argues should have an international component focusing on infrastructure investments in Central America to make it into an economic growth region. He contends that US international infrastructure investments should also focus on South America and globally.
Consequentially, he argues that by combining infrastructure investments in the US and internationally that would make The American Jobs Plan a historic US strategy to drive infrastructure and economic development both in the US and internationally.
Wednesday, April 7, 2021
Understanding Russia's Economic Potential
In this program he examines Russia´s economic potential by analysing Russia´s geography, infrastructure planning, energy resources, pipeline network, mineral resources and industrial base.
Wednesday, March 31, 2021
EU-China Relations
In this program he examines EU – China relations after the EU imposed sanctions on China on Monday this week, and China reciprocated.
Wednesday, March 24, 2021
Peace Summits in Moscow and Istanbul on Afghanistan
In this program he examines the peace summit in Moscow tomorrow and the peace conference in Istanbul in April – both focused on Afghanistan.
Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Political Tensions Resurface in Northern Ireland
In this program he examines the political tensions in Northern Ireland, which resurfaced as the Loyalist Communities Council withdrew its support for the Good Friday Agreement, signed in 1998 to end the conflict in Northern Ireland.
Wednesday, March 10, 2021
Implications of the US Military Strike against Shia-Militias in Syria
In this program he examines implications of the #US military strike against Shia-militias in #Syria last week. He also examines the continued attacks against US military forces in #Iraq and how this is linked to the killing of IRGC General Qasem Soleimani.
Wednesday, March 3, 2021
Russian - EU Relations
In this program he examines the worsening relationship between Russia and the EU.
Wednesday, February 23, 2021
Changing US - Saudi Relations
In this program he examines changing US – Saudi relations.
Wednesday, February 17, 2021
Dynamics and Risks in US - Iran Relations
In this program he examines dynamics and risks in US – Iran relations.
Wednesday, February 10, 2021
Coup in Myanmar and Protests in Russia
In this program he examines the coup in Myanmar and protests in Russia.
Wednesday, February 3, 2021
Protests in Tunisia
In this program he examines recent protests in Tunisia.
Wednesday, January 28, 2021
Forecasting of the Coronavirus Pandemic
In this program he examines and forecasts future developments of the Coronavirus pandemic.
Wednesday, January 20, 2021
Coup attempt in the United States
In this program he examines the coup attempt in the United States on January 6.
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
GCC Summit
In this program he examines the final settlement reached at the GCC Summit in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia.
Wednesday, January 6, 2021
Turkey and Mozambique
In this program he examines the US sanctions on Turkey and developments in Mozambique.
Thursday, December 15 2020
Locust Outbreak in East Africa and South Asia
In this program he examines the locust outbreak in East Africa and South Asia.
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Geopolitical Implications of Brexit
In this program he examines the geopolitical impplications of Britain´s exit from the EU today.
Friday January 31, 2020
Strategic Warning - Coronavirus
In this program he examines the impact of the coronavirus and what companies can do to mitigate this evolving and complex medical risk.
Friday January 24, 2020
Oman and Libya
In this program he examines the situation in Oman and Libya.
Friday January 17, 2020
The Middle East
In this program he examines the situation in the Middle East, after the US attack that killed Qasem Soleimani and Iran attacked US military bases inside Iraq.
Wednesday, January 8, 2020
India
In this program he examines the recent protests across India and the economic, regional and geopolitical consequences of the Citizenship Amendment Act.
Thursday, December 19, 2019
US - China trade dynamics
In this program he examines US-China trade dynamics. Geopolitical Horizon: US-China trade dynamics – December 13, 2019
Friday, December 13, 2019
Sahel region and West Africa
In this program he examines the serious and dire situation in the Sahel-region and potential terrorism threat to surrounding countries in West Africa. In addition he calls for an international and holistic response to the situation in the Sahel-region and he argues that if the international community does not respond the situation may become a global threat.
Thursday, December 5, 2019
Colombia
In this program he examines the demonstrations and political unrest which broke out across Colombia yesterday, which follows similar protest trajectories in Peru, Equador, Chile and Bolivia.
Friday, November 22, 2019
Brexit
In this program filmed in London he examines Brexit and consequences of the two scenarios: Britain decides to leave or stay in the European Union.
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
RCEP and India
In this program filmed in London he examines the geopolitical and trade implications of India´s decision not to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Wednesday, November 6, 2019
Uzbekistan
In this program he examines the strategic location and reform process in Uzbekistan.
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Chile
In this program he examines drivers behind the recent protests in Chile.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Norwegian Risk Forum
In this program he presents and welcomes speakers and participants to NRCI´s 10th annual international geopolitical conference – Norwegian Risk Forum 2019 – which NRCI hosts tomorrow on October 17 at the Grand Hotel in Oslo.
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Equador
In this program he examines recent protests and its impact on Equador´s political situation and oil production.
Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Indonesia
In this program he covers recent protests in Jakarta and Western Papua in Indonesia.
Wednesday, October 2, 2019
UN General Assembly Meeting and Greta Thunberg
Geopolitical Horizon is NRCI´s original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he covers the annual UN General Assembly Meeting and Greta Thunberg´s iconic call for action on climate change to state leaders and how she inspires children and young people around the world to form a global voice for climate change.
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
Saudi Arabia
In this program he covers developments in Saudi Arabia after the unprecedented attacks against the Abqaiq oil processing facility and the Khurais oil field.
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Russia
Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he covers developments in Russia with the production of a new LNG facility in northern Arctic Russia and the Meridian Highway extending from western Kazakhstan to Belarus across Russia´s Eurasian landmass portraying Russia´s geostrategic thinking.
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
South Africa
In this program he examines the political situation in South Africa.
Wednesday, September 4, 2019
Japan and South Korea
In this program he examines the worsening relationship between Japan and South Korea.
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Ethiopia
In this program he covers developments in Ethiopia.
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Argentina and Mozambique
In this program he covers developments in Argentina and Mozambique.
Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Persian Gulf, Hong Kong & Kashmir
Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this first program he covers developments in the Persian Gulf, Hong Kong and Kashmir.
Wednesday, August 7, 2019