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Global Horizon

Asian Horizon: Taiwan - Strategic Risk Assessment

Asian Horizon: Taiwan - Strategic Risk Assessment Subscribe to Global Horizon: https://lnkd.in/d7zAw6x Global Horizon is NRCI´s YouTube Channel #GlobalHorizon Weekly Program Schedule: Asian Horizon - Every Monday Geopolitical Horizon - Every Wednesday African Horizon - Every Friday Speaking engagement enquiries: client@nrci.no #AsianHorizon is a weekly NRCI original series released every Monday. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in Asia. #AsianHorizon, #China, #Taiwan, #US

Monday, October 25, 2021

African Horizon: Railway Developments in West Africa

African Horizon: Railway Developments in West Africa Subscribe to Global Horizon: https://lnkd.in/d7zAw6x Global Horizon is NRCI´s YouTube Channel #GlobalHorizon Weekly Program Schedule: Asian Horizon - Every Monday Geopolitical Horizon - Every Wednesday African Horizon - Every Friday Request availability for speaking engagements and advisory sessions with NRCI founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen - client@nrci.no #AfricanHorizon is a weekly NRCI original series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in Africa. #AfricanHorizon, #Railway, #Ghana, #BurkinaFaso, #WestAfrica, #SahelRegion

Friday, October 15, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Russia-Iran Strategic Partnership

Geopolitical Horizon: Russia-Iran Strategic Partnership

Subscribe to Global Horizon: https://lnkd.in/d7zAw6x Global Horizon is NRCI´s YouTube Channel

#GlobalHorizon Weekly Program Schedule: Asian Horizon - Every Monday Geopolitical Horizon - Every Wednesday African Horizon - Every Friday

Request availability for speaking engagements and advisory sessions with NRCI founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen - client@nrci.no

#GeopoliticalHorizon is a weekly NRCI original series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments around the world.

#GeopoliticalHorizon, #Russia, #Iran

Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Asian Horizon: JCPOA Negotiations - Risk Assessment

Geopolitical Horizon: Russia-Iran Strategic Partnership

Subscribe to Global Horizon: https://lnkd.in/d7zAw6x Global Horizon is NRCI´s YouTube Channel

#GlobalHorizon Weekly Program Schedule: Asian Horizon - Every Monday Geopolitical Horizon - Every Wednesday African Horizon - Every Friday

Request availability for speaking engagements and advisory sessions with NRCI founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen - client@nrci.no

#GeopoliticalHorizon is a weekly NRCI original series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments around the world.

#GeopoliticalHorizon, #Russia, #Iran

Monday, October 11, 2021

African Horizon: Prepare for Business in Africa and Find the Right Local Partner

In this program he examines how to prepare for business in Africa, and what to focus on to find a local partner. This video is useful for companies and investors that do not operate in Africa yet, but maybe you have started business research or you consider a specific investment and you are looking for a local partner.

When you look for a partner it is important to find someone who is humble and able to listen. Also, ensure that you find a local partner with an industrial and financial track record with the relevant business experience, management competence, and local network that will be important for your business over the long-term. Conduct proper risk assessments of any business proposition and business plan that a local partner presents to you, and you need to be on the ground to follow up developments from the beginning.

Friday, October 8, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Global Energy Crisis

In this program he examines the current global energy crisis. Presently gas prices increase substantially driving electricity prices impacting countries particularly across Europe and Asia. In France and the UK some factories stopped production recently. In the coming months the Northern Hemisphere heads into the winter season driving electricity needs as private homes need heating.

In China we now see electricity cuts implemented in a range of cities as there is lack of access to gas and coal. This global energy crisis could spill into social unrest driving political risks if people cannot pay their bills, and if companies and factories have to stop production driving layoffs.

This global energy turbulence likely continues to varying degree in the coming months and years. With the transition to renewable energy and the new economy we also likely see an interim period in which access to enough energy to drive economies remains an issue.

Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Asian Horizon: China-Laos Railway Opening China-Southeast Asia Corridor

In this program he examines the new China-Laos railway corridor opening in Laos National Day on December 2. The 471 km railway extending from Boten on the China-Laos border to Vientiane includes 20 stations, 75 tunnels and 165 bridges. This railway transforms Laos from a land-locked to a land-linked country between China and Thailand. The China-Laos railway constitutes the first leg of what will become the China-Southeast Asia corridor. In Thailand they are now building a 625 km railway corridor from Bangkok to Nong Khai on the Thai-Laos border. This will continue from Nong Khai to Vientiane connecting with the China-Laos railway corridor.

Then we will most likely see upgrade and new railway corridor developed from Bankgok to Kuala Lumpur and onwards to Singapore. The 3900 km distance from Kunming in the Yunnan province in China to Singapore may be connected with a final 1700 km extension built from Singapore all the way to Jakarta in Indonesia. That would provide a 5600 km China - Southeast Asia corridor. Completion for the entire China-Southeast Asia corridor could be expected around 2030 - 2040.

Monday, October 4, 2021

African Horizon: Telecom Sector Booming Across Africa

In this program he examines the booming telecom sector in Africa. Telecom providers across Africa made record number revenues during the Corona pandemic as many people were locked up home using internet and mobile broadband. In addition there is a growing ecosystem of industries and business sectors that grow rapidly with the rising telecom sector. However, despite this growth in the telecom sector this is still in the beginning - because almost 70 % of Africa´s population is not connected to broadband.

Africa´s total population is currently approaching 1,4 billion people, this will rise to 1,7 billion by 2030, 2,1 billion by 2040 and 2,5 billion by 2050. This provides a huge growth market for the telecom sector and this connected ecosystem of mobile financial providers, mobile payment systems, internet and telecom infrastructure providers and the internet economy. Therefore, now is the right time to explore business opportunities and invest in the booming telecom sector and related industries on the African continent.

Friday, October 1, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: North Korea - Missile Tests and Risk Dynamics

In this program he examines the situation in North Korea after the recent ballistic and hypersonic missile tests. The geopolitical theater around North Korea remains tense due to these continued missile tests, which most likely will not stop until the US changes its sanctions policy towards North Korea. The US should rethink its foreign policy towards North Korea to contribute to a change in the security environment and geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia. The situation remains particularly concerning for Japan, South Korea, China, and the wider region.

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Asian Horizon: EXPO 2020 DUBAI - Opportunities and Dialogue

In this program he examines EXPO 2020 DUBAI, which opens on Friday October 1. This is the first time an expo is hosted in the Middle East. Countries from all over the world developed their own country exhibitions in the EXPO 2020 DUBAI area. This opens a range of opportunities for international dialogue, business development, and bridge building between countries and across cultures, religions and societies. Expo was first hosted in London in 1851. Now 170 years later it opens in Dubai in the UAE.

Over the last decades the UAE and Dubai went through a remarkable growth and evolution from being a desert area to now becoming a global growth hub for business, logistics and finance in the Middle East. Many countries can learn from the UAE by observing how they developed the UAE´s economy and modern urban city landscapes. The UAE also developed international advisory councils for various ministries, which is a sophisticated approach to strategic thinking enabling different world leading experts to contribute to the UAE´s growth and evolution.

Monday, September 27, 2021

African Horizon: A Realistic and Balanced Assessment of Chinese Infrastructure in Africa

In this program he provides a realistic and balanced assessment of Chinese infrastructure in Africa. Recently we received a range of questions about Chinese infrastructure in Africa, and therefore we decided to provide a new video assessing the importance of Chinese infrastructure projects across the African continent.

Western journalists and analysts continue to provide unbalanced articles and assessments of Chinese infrastructure projects across Africa. There is an urgent need to provide a reckoning with this unbalanced reporting. NRCI´s Founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen traveled on countless fact-finding expeditions by public bus across 30 countries in western, central, southern and eastern Africa to assess and understand infrastructure developments, economic and logistics corridors, urban and rural dynamics, and societal and tribal developments.

Across Africa there is an urgent need to develop infrastructure connectivity, roads, railways, energy infrastructure and urban and rural infrastructure. In recent years China´s infrastructure investments across Africa provided essential economic foundations for many African countries. Without China´s infrastructure investments in Africa - then the situation would be much worse than already experienced in many areas of Africa. Therefore, there is time for a more nuanced and realistic assessment of the importance of Chinese infrastructure in Africa.

Currently, those who provide the most realistic and useful articles and assessments of Chinese infrastructure projects across Africa are African journalists and analysts. In NRCI we follow African analysts, journalists and reporting with great interest.

Thursday, September 23, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: UN High Level Meetings - World Facing Geopolitical and Strategic Stress Test

In this program he examines the geopolitical and strategic stress test facing the world today as the UN meets for its annual High Level Week in New York. Last night President Xi presented that China will no longer invest in coal-powered projects around the world. President Biden followed up by saying that the US will double its investments in climate projects around the world using its aid structure. The question is will the US be able to solve global climate issues using its aid structure., That is not necessarily going to solve the global climate issues. Rather to solve the global issues facing the world today - the world needs more investments in infrastructure and industrial development around the world and China is currently driving that with its global One Belt One Road strategy.

Currently the world faces three major strategic issues driving geopolitical challenges around the world: The global climate challenge, the global Corona pandemic and major poverty which continues to plague large parts of the world driving conflicts, wars, and growing refugee crisis across Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Only by investing in infrastructure, industrial development and energy access will people see job opportunities, economic growth and hope in their home countries. That will be critical going forward to slow down the growing refugee crisis around the world.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Asian Horizon: AUKUS - Geopolitical and Strategic Implications

In this program he examines the geopolitical and strategic implications of AUKUS - the new strategic security partnership between the US, UK and Australia. China reacted angrily to this new security partnership as Beijing regards this as another Western security-initiative meant to confront and challenge China. China considers AUKUS a new security layer adding to an expanding US-led security architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region involving QUAD and the US-Japan and US-South Korea security alliances.

With AUKUS, Australia will purchase 8 nuclear-powered and conventionally-armed submarines from the US and the UK. Australia cancelled its contract with the NAVAL Group of France for 12 conventionally-powered submarines. This caused a major unprecedented diplomatic crisis between France and the US, France and Australia, and France and the UK. On a deeper level this constitutes another example of US unilateral decision-making fomenting the deepening long-term divisions between Europe and the US. AUKUS may also impact ongoing EU - Australia free-trade negotiations.

Negotiations between the US, UK and Australia regarding AUKUS lasted for 18 months, without France knowing. President Macron was informed about AUKUS in a letter only a few hours before the virtual press conference, on Wednesday last week US and UK-time and Thursday morning Australia-time, in which President Biden, Prime Minister Johnson and Prime Minister Morrison presented AUKUS.

Monday, September 20, 2021

African Horizon: Kenyan Waters Removed from High-Risk Area Category

In this program he explains how Kenyan waters were recently removed from the high-risk area category by BMP-5, which comprise the five largest global shipping industry associations. In 2009 Kenya was placed in this high-risk area category due to increased piracy activity. Recently there were no reported piracy incidents in this area. Removal from this high-risk area category will decrease risk insurance premiums, seafarer costs, and supply costs across East Africa.

Kenya´s removal from this high-risk category adds to a range of other important and positive steps taking place across Kenya with opening of the new Lamu Port in June, increased infrastructure investments across Kenya, new business developments and more foreign companies investing in Kenya.

Friday, September 17, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: US Sanctions Policy Drives China´s Rise and Geopolitical Space

In this program he examines how US sanctions policy drives China´s rise and geopolitical space. When the US imposes sanctions on various countries, then these countries look for other partners - we see this over the years for example with Russia and Iran now developing closer relations with China. Earlier this year China and Iran signed a 25-year strategic agreement and China and Russia now continue to deepen their strategic partnership.

US foreign policy and media circles do not seem reflect on this inadvertent geopolitical consequence of continued US sanctions. Moreover, the Biden administration does not appear to plan any major changes in the application of US sanctions policy.

Consequently, US sanctions policy continues to drive countries toward China also in the future.

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Asian Horizon: Eurasian Strategic Architecture: China, Russia, Turkey and Iran

In this program he examines the Eurasian strategic architectural landscape and the role of four key players: China, Russia, Turkey and Iran. Envisioning the future we see a range of infrastructure, industrial and economic corridors emerging between China, Russia, Turkey and Iran. These four giants play a vital role in the emerging strategic architecture of Eurasia.

China and Iran recently signed a 25-year strategic agreement; Russia and Iran currently negotiate a new strategic agreement; Turkey play an important actor with infrastructure and industrial investments across Central Asia and the Middle East. In addition, emerging rail, road and logistics connectivity across the Eurasian continent from north to south and east to west drive economic growth, trade, and business relationships. We also see an expanding web of special economic zones and logistics clusters becoming growth engines connecting the vast Eurasian landscape. China, Russia, Turkey and Iran are all industrial countries with substantial manufacturing capacity - developing the Eurasian strategic architecture.

Monday, September 13, 2021

African Horizon: Western Myths about Chinese Infrastructure Projects in Africa

In this program he debunks some western myths about Chinese infrastructure projects in Africa. A range of myths and wrong information float around about Chinese infrastructure investments on the African continent. A lot of Western journalists and analysts fail to provide a balanced and nuanced assessment about Chinese investments in Africa, particularly when it comes to who work on these projects - Chinese vs. African workers - and regarding the quality of projects.

Very few tell the most important reality - that Chinese infrastructure investments in Africa are critically important to Africa.

Friday, September 10, 2021

Asian Horizon: The Role of Qatar After NATO Exit from Afghanistan

In this program he examines Qatar´s increasingly important role after NATO´s exit from Afghanistan. The Taliban had an office in Doha over the last decade and maintain close relations with Qatar´s leadership. The US will now move its diplomatic mission focusing on Afghanistan to Doha, and other countries are also now considering moving their embassies from Kabul to Doha focusing on Afghanistan.

In addition, Qatar and Turkey now coordinate and plan technical work processes to reopen Kabul International Airport. Last night, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab stood next to Qatar´s foreign minister Abdulrahman Al-Thani at a press conference in Doha, and there will probably be a range of other press conferences with Qatari and international leaders in Doha focusing on Afghanistan going forward.

Consequently, Doha becomes the diplomatic center of gravity with global attention now on Afghanistan.

Monday, September 6, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: US Foreign Policy after NATO Exit from Afghanistan

In this program he examines US foreign policy after NATO´s exit from Afghanistan. What is the direction of US foreign policy in the future? How will US foreign policy impact relations with Europe, the Middle East, Asia and China and other countries? Does the US have the relevant strategic tools and architecture to build economic, trade and infrastructure around the world in the future? What results will US foreign policy deliver going forward? Will US foreign policy maintain US pre-eminence globally? You gain insights into these and other questions in this program.

Wednesday, September 1, 2021

African Horizon: US-Africa Economic Relations

In this program he examines US-Africa economic relations. What are the future prospects for economic relations between Africa and the US? Will we see US companies developing large-scale infrastructure projects across the African continent? What are some of the main differences between Chinese and US companies and what does this mean for their investments on the African continent? This program examines these and other interesting perspectives regarding economic and trade relations between the US and Africa.

Friday, August 27, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Future of European-US Relations

In this program he examines the future of European-US relations in a long-term perspective. What is the long-term outlook for relations between Europe and the US? What factors may impact the relationship? We see internal divisions emerging among political, military and security circles in European capitals and the US after President Biden decided to withdraw the remaining 2,500 soldiers from Afghanistan. European countries feel the US made a unilateral decision without listening to European concerns about withdrawing to early, when the military mission in Afghanistan started with a collective Article 5 decision in NATO.

The Biden administration also maintains the 25 % steel and 10 % aluminium tariffs imposed on Europe by President Trump. These are only a few of the factors impacting European-US relations currently. During President Trump´s administration we saw the potential for deep divisions between Europe and the US. Should President Trump or another Republican president with similar policy and ideological tendencies win the 2024 US presidential election, we likely see similar tensions re-emerging between Europe and the US.

The US Senate recently passed a 1 trillion USD infrastructure bill to invest in the US. This and other recent internal and external commercial and strategic policy initiatives combined with an inward trend in US foreign policy decision-making reflect a growing long-term trajectory in US strategic direction. This change in US strategic direction combined with the growing focus on China and Asia, and less focus on Europe in strategic circles in the US, reflect the beginning of a separation in the long-term outlook between Europe and the US.

Although European-US relations likely remain stable in the coming years, we may see deeper divisions emerging between Europe and the US in the long term. Over the coming 10 - 25 year period we may see Europe and the US slowly slide apart strategically.

Wednesday, August 25, 2021

Asian Horizon: Regional Implications of NATO Exit from Afghanistan

In this program he examines the regional implications of NATO´s exit from Afghanistan. He examines potential developments and perspectives from China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. He takes a deeper look at potential infrastructure and economic corridors. Afghanistan has an important geographic location situated at the epicenter of Eurasia. NATO made a cardinal error to not invest in infrastructure in Afghanistan. Therefore, Europe and the US have no strategic relevance or strategic presence in Afghanistan´s future.

Future historians may look back and write that NATO´s exit from Afghanistan was the definitive beginning of the end to the Western world´s dominance in world politics. Lending credence to Afghanistan´s epithet - graveyard of empires.

In addition he assesses the potential for terrorist groups to maintain and strengthen their activities inside Afghanistan. Taliban insisted so far that no terrorist groups will be allowed to operate inside Afghanistan. However, Afghanistan is a vast country, thus it may be challenging for Taliban to prevent terrorist groups from finding hideouts where they may train and operate unimpeded.

Monday, August 23, 2021

African Horizon: Impact Investing in Africa

In this program he examines impact investing in Africa. An increasing amount of financial firms, banks, venture capital firms, private equity firms and other financial entities focus on impact investing in Africa founded on environmental, social and governance principles. A few aspects to consider regarding impact investing in Africa: Gain a solid understanding of the geographic area you want to focus on. Conduct considerable research into business sectors and markets to gain a strong understanding of local firms, entities and emerging companies focusing on ESG objectives.

Develop long-term relationships with local industrial and financial partners operating on the ground in Africa with a long industrial and financial track-record. Build dialogue with local stake holders who understand the intricacies of political, business, social and tribal developments in the region you want to focus on. Share and exchange knowledge about impact investing and listen carefully to local partners regarding how and in which areas impact investing may be most useful.

Conduct detailed, balanced and informed risk assessments. Examine both risks and opportunities and long-term political and economic trajectories. Infrastructure investments play an important role in driving poverty allevation and economic access. Assess future economic corridors, logistics clusters, special economic zones and other avenues driving long-term growth.

Friday, August 20, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Iran to Join Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as a Full Member

In this program he examines how Iran now will enter the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the strategic implications of this move. On Wednesday last week the Secretary of the National Security Council in Russia, Nikolai Patrushev, called the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council in Iran, Ali Shamkhani. They discussed a range of issues including Afghanistan, Syria and the Persian Gulf. In addition, Patrushev informed Shamkhani that Iran now may enter the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Iran maintained observer status in the SCO since 2005, and was unable to gain full member status due to political objections from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Now that Taliban took control in Afghanistan - and since Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Iran all share border with Afghanistan - the geopolitical situation shifted - and now there is an urgent need to share information on security and intelligence issues in the region. Iran´s entrance into the SCO also deepens planning, coordination and facilitation regarding trade, infrastructure connectivity and economic developments - particularly regarding China´s One Belt One Road (OBOR) strategy.

In addition, with Iran a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation - this cements Iran´s strategic direction and position towards the east. The SCO is the most important security organisation in Asia. Iran´s inclusion as a full member manifests the SCO´s strategic architectural foundation from China to Iran.

Wednesday, August 18, 2021

Asian Horizon: Taliban Conquers Afghanistan - Current Dynamics and Strategic Vibrations

In this program he examines Taliban´s return to power in Kabul and how it now controls Afghanistan. He examines what this means strategically and provides a forecast going forward. Now, former President Ashraf Ghani along with his wife, director of his office and National Security Advisor, flew to Tashkent in Uzbekistan yesterday.

In the near future, China may recognize Taliban as the official government in Afghanistan, and Russia, which until now registered Taliban as a terrorist group, may also follow suit and recognize Taliban. Interestingly, Russia decided to maintain its diplomats and staff at its embassy in Kabul, and will not pull out as other countries now do.

Currently, Islamic State - Khorasan (IS-K) numbers approximately 2,200 in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces in eastern Afghanistan, and likely other areas. Taliban fought IS until now, however it remains to be seen how much focus Taliban will place on fighting IS-K going forward. While Al-Qaeda´s current organization in Afghanistan is considerably diminished compared to before 9/11 2001, they will now likely re-organize and may attempt to find areas where they can rebuild over time.

Strategically, Taliban´s take over in Afghanistan shifts focus east as European countries and the US no longer have any influence in Afghanistan. China and Russia along with Central Asian countries, Iran and Pakistan may soon attempt to establish negotiations with the Taliban to plan strategic infrastructure investments and other investments to integrate Afghanistan into economic corridors and investment strategies in the wider Eurasian landscape. India invested in the Port of Chabahar in southeastern Iran as its gateway into Afghanistan, now that may end. India clearly opposed Taliban´s military take over in Afghanistan. The US and NATO underestimated Taliban´s capacity, agility and operational strength.

Monday, August 16, 2021

African Horizon: Architecture and Urban Planning in Africa

In this program he examines architecture and urban planning opportunities in Africa. There are major growth and development opportunities across the African continent. Architecture, urban planning and design firms around the world considering opportunities in Africa should study African architects and African architectural traditions. Study how architecture is developed, how seasonal and climatic conditions impact architectural planning and foundations, and how local communities, resources and the earth form a central part in African architectural traditions.

There is major development with new residential housing, tourism facilities and resorts, commercial buildings, hotels, museums, shopping malls, airports, urban planning projects etc currently developed across Africa - this provides interesting and profitable opportunities for architects, urban planners, designers and real estate investors.

For architecture, urban planning and design students around the world who consider moving to Africa to work - now is a unique time as there will be major growth across the African continent in the coming years and decades. Conduct research into architecture firms and local architecture, regulations, laws, local conditions, tenders and the various phases architectural, building and urban planning projects go through and study how they work and operate.

Friday, August 13, 2021

Climate Change: Scenarios and Strategic Forecast

In this program he shares some scenarios and strategic forecast on climate change. On Monday the IPCC released a new very serious and damning report indicating more extreme weather and further climate disruptions in the coming years and decades. The question is will the world be able to change course to reach the necessary climate change goals? The world´s inability to coordinate and collaborate on vaccination during the global Corona pandemic is a sign indicating how challenging it is for the world to cooperate and coordinate on global issues.

People live in extreme poverty in large parts of the world and that is a major challenge. While countries are responsible for their own economic and political development, we also see countries influenced and subjugated by other countries throughout history through colonization, wars and in other ways. This cause many countries to suffer from extreme poverty and major development challenges.

We will also see more wars in the coming years and decades and this will set countries back, and after these wars end they will seek to redevelop, which again requires more energy and need for economic development to rebuild. These never-ending cycles show how the world continues to evolve in historical cycles, and this may take the world in a direction we do not want to be in terms of climate change.

However, it is still possible for countries, companies and organizations to change course, but that will require major efforts in terms of collaboration, coordination, planning and facilitation within countries, regionally and globally.

Wednesday, August 11, 2021

Asian Horizon: Tokyo Olympics 2020 and Global Human Spirit

In this program he shares some reflections on the Tokyo Olympics 2020 and the extraordinary Summer Olympic Games, which Tokyo and Japan organized, during very challenging times in Japan and the world. During the Tokyo Olympics 2020 we have seen the global human spirit as athletes from around the world came together to compete in a range of sports.

From a management and event perspective, many companies, organizations, foundations and countries can learn from the extraordinary organization, coordination, facilitation and communication which Japan and Tokyo presented over the last weeks in the Tokyo Olympics 2020, and which we will see during the Tokyo 2020 Summer Paralympic Games. Thank you, Japan.

Monday, August 9, 2021

African Horizon: Western Media Coverage of Africa

In this program he examines Western media coverage of Africa. Newspapers, news channels and media houses across Europe and North America should increase, sharpen and deepen their focus on Africa, and provide more informative, nuanced and insightful news coverage of a range of fields across the African continent. That could include business developments, finance, investment opportunities, politics, logistics, infrastructure, real estate developments, architecture, urban planning, arts, design, fashion, lifestyle, nature, cultures, society, environmental issues, education, science and geographic issues etc.

When newspapers, media houses and news channels across Europe and North America provide more informed, nuanced, and insightful news stories from a range of areas as here suggested that will inspire more business people, investors, entrepreneurs and people from other fields to travel and consider opportunities in Africa.

Newspapers, news channels and media houses in Europe and North America play an important role in providing credible, nuanced and informed news stories from a wide range of areas to educate and inform people so they gain a thoughtful, intelligent and knowledge-based understanding of African countries.

Friday, August 6, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: JCPOA Negotiations and Iran

In this program he examines the potential for resumed JCPOA negotiations after Ebrahim Raisi is inducted as new president of Iran tomorrow. Iran said it wants guarantees that all US sanctions will be lifted if they enter a new JCPOA agreement. The US negotiation team´s analysis assumes that the Iranians are so desperate to get a new JCPOA agreement to get some sanctions relief that the Iranians will relent. However is this analysis right? Iran appears more resilient than the US may think, and while US sanctions damaged Iran´s economy, the Iranian economy is stronger and more dynamic than the US seem to realize.

JCPOA negotiations most likely resume in the coming weeks or months. In the event that there is no agreement, risks increase again in the region. However, Iran said that if it is attacked militarily, then Iran will retaliate and there will be a full blown war. Therefore, it remains to be seen which direction this takes going forward.

Wednesday, August 4, 2021

Asian Horizon: Taliban & Afghanistan´s Political Future – China and Russia´s Strategic Maneuvering

In this program he examines Taliban´s role in Afghanistan´s political future, and China and Russia´s strategic maneuvering. Russia conducted several meetings with the Taliban and other parties in Moscow on several occasions, and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met with a Taliban delegation on a two-day visit in Tianjin last week.

In the middle of July the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) conducted a meeting at the foreign minister level with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi along with other SCO members in which they discussed Afghanistan´s future in the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group. Now it appears increasingly likely that Taliban may gain a leading role in Afghanistan´s political future through their military conquests.

China and Russia understand this and seek to build a pragmatic dialogue with Taliban to ensure that Taliban understands the need to stabilize and develop national unity in Afghanistan in the future, and to prevent other terrorist organizations from gaining a training foothold inside Afghanistan to conduct attacks inside other countries.

This is a complex, delicate and evolving situation which requires a pragmatic, focused and multipronged diplomatic effort within a regional context to also integrate Afghanistan economically into infrastructure projects and trade corridors in the future.

Monday, August 2, 2021

Asian Horizon: Saudi Arabia - Geoeconomic Challenges

In this program he examines Saudi Arabia´s geoeconomic challenges. How does Saudi Arabia´s lack of access to oceans impact its geoeconomic environment? Does Saudi Arabia have an international infrastructure strategy? Where could Saudi Arabia develop overland trade routes to drive its Vision 2030 targets? These and other questions will be explored in this program.

Monday, June 28, 2021

African Horizon: SADC to Deploy Standby Force in Cabo Delgado

In this program he examines SADC´s decision to establish a standby force in Cabo Delgado to quell the terrorist movement which attacked villages and cities there since October 2017. SADC did not decide the size and timeline of the operation. However, SADC will most likely send a force with 1000 - 5000 troops and the operation may last for years. Mozambique´s government must form a larger and broader economic, political and societal strategy to develop Cabo Delgado and northern Mozambique. Because a military operation alone will not change the situation in Cabo Delgado where high poverty levels pose a major challenge in daily life.

Friday, June 25, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Oil Price, Geopolitical Shocks and Cyber Attacks

In this program he examines the increasing oil price and the factors that could impact the oil price going forward. The energy transition lowers investments in oil and gas which drives the oil price up. Combined with potential geopolitical shocks and cyber attacks we likely see increased volatility in energy markets going forward.

The recent Colonial pipeline cyber attack on the East Coast in the US also showed the vulnerability in US energy infrastructure, particularly on the East Coast. Higher oil prices combined with carbon management programs and higher taxes drive gas prices up which may also increase political risks in a range of countries. We may see the oil price reach 100 USD this year or next year. The oil price could also drop, therefore volatility should be expected going forward.

Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Asian Horizon: Ebrahim Raisi - New President in Iran: Policies and Strategic Thinking

In this program he examines Ebrahim Raisi´s likely policies and strategic thinking as he won the presidential election in Iran this weekend. What will be his major policies and in which direction will he lead Iran? What will happen with the JCPOA talks in Geneva? How will Ebrahim Raisi position Iran strategically? How will Iran´s regional policies evolve under President Raisi?

Monday, June 21, 2021

African Horizon: Ivory Coast - Political Situation and Risk Dynamics

In this program he examines the return of Laurent Gbagbo to the Ivory Coast in West Africa after his acquittal by the ICC. Gbagbo´s return provides an opportunity for national reconciliation, but may also trigger further protests, violence and potentially a new civil war. Therefore, the Ivory Coast is at a critical point now.

National reconciliation is only possible if Gbagbo and current president Alassane Ouattara meet and form a national reconciliation process through dialogue. Conversely, if Gbagbo and Ouattara do not form a national dialogue of reconciliation, then current tensions may cement and create an uncontrollable risk spiral.

Friday, June 18, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Russia-US Relations -- Strategic Forecast

In this program he examines Russia-US relations as President Putin and President Biden meet in Geneva today. Currently, Russia-US relations remain at a low point. This most likely continues. President Biden and his administration underestimates Russia. Russia diversified its economy towards China, other Asian countries, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and therefore, relies less on the US. President Biden´s continued threats against Russia only strengthens Russia´s resolve to shift its focus away from the US.

In addition, even if President Biden presents his administration´s red lines towards Russia as he stated he would in their meeting in Geneva today, there is little the US can do. If the US imposes more sanctions against Russia, then Russia reciprocates and the strategic shift towards China deepens.

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Asian Horizon: G7 and China - Infrastructure

In this program he reflects on the G7 Summit´s agreement to develop infrastructure around the world - he assesses if we will see the G7 countries developing infrastructure on a global scale as China does with its One Belt One Road strategy. He argues that we are probably not going to see the G7 countries collectively develop a global infrastructure strategy such as China has with its OBOR strategy. However, rather we may see G7 countries and companies from G7 countries independently develop infrastructure around the world.

To develop infrastructure on a global scale such as China does requires advanced industrial and manufacturing capacity on a large scale, balanced relations with many countries, and a geopolitical balancing act.

Monday, June 14, 2021

African Horizon: North Africa Economic Corridor

In this program he shares some reflections on what he thinks should become a North Africa Economic Corridor stretching from Egypt across Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and to Morocco. The governments in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco should develop a strategic economic corridor in collaboration with international financial partners, energy companies, industrial companies and infrastructure companies.

A North Africa Economic Corridor could include a high-speed railway, highway, pipelines, special economic zones, logistics clusters, energy projects and smart sustainable cities. This North Africa Economic Corridor could also be connected by economic corridor extensions southwards to eastern, central and western Africa. This economic corridor would transform North Africa into an economic growth region.

Friday, June 11, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: A Fateful Error in NATO´s Exit Strategy in Afghanistan

In this program he shares some reflections on a fateful error in NATO´s exit strategy in Afghanistan. Now that NATO pulls out and ends its 20 year military mission in Afghanistan we need to ask some important questions: What has NATO achieved in Afghanistan? Has NATO been able to build strategic relevance, strategic presence and a strategic foundation to be a part of Afghanistan´s future and economic future? The answer is NATO has not been able to achieve that.

What could NATO have done differently with its exit strategy to build strategic relevance, strategic presence and a strategic foundation to be a part of Afghanistan´s future? NATO should have developed a strategic infrastructure master plan with financial, industrial and infrastructure partners to develop energy projects, railways, highways, special economic zones, and logistics clusters across Afghanistan. That would have given NATO strategic relevance, strategic presence and a strategic foundation in Afghanistan´s future and economic future.

On May 19, Russian Railways Chief Oleg Belozerov signed an agreement to design a railway that will stretch from Uzbekistan across Afghanistan to Pakistan. That shows Russia´s ability to maintain strategic relevance in Afghanistan and the region.

Wednesday, June 9, 2021

Asian Horizon: China-US Relations

In this program he shares his perspectives on current dynamics in China-US relations. He also provides a strategic forecast. He examines the economic, strategic and security spheres in this vital bilateral relationship. He opens by asking a fundamental question: Does the US have the relevant strategic architecture and strategic tools to compete with China in the economic sphere? He also examines if there will be a war between China and the US, and he concludes by providing a strategic forecast.

Monday, June 7, 2021

African Horizon: Egypt - Infrastructure Projects and Strategic Thinking

In this program he reflects on new infrastructure projects in Egypt. In recent years Egypt built a second Suez Canal; started building a New Administrative Capital & a high speed railway which will stretch 1000 kms from El Alamein via the New Administrative Capital to Al Sokhna by the Suez Canal; a new Suez Canal Economic Zone with foreign investments; and a new Grand Egyptian Museum.

Arne Elias Corneliussen suggests Egypt should initiate an economic corridor through Sudan & South Sudan to East Africa to drive economic growth in southern & central Egypt; and to develop north Egypt & North Africa - he proposes that Egypt advocates for a North African Economic Corridor from Egypt to Morocco. In conclusion he suggests an economic corridor from Egypt to the Middle East by building a bridge from Sinai via the Tiran Island to Saudi Arabia.

Friday, June 4, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: How to Avoid Corruption

In this program he shares a few key thoughts on how to avoid corruption. This program is relevant for companies, financial firms, investors and other business entities planning to invest or conduct business around the world. Companies need to build a robust and resilient culture with integrity on all levels with zero tolerance against corruption.

Wednesday, June 2, 2021

Asian Horizon: China-Russia Relations

In this program he examines current China-Russia relations and he provides a strategic forecast. This week Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission in China, Yang Yiechi, meets with Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, in Moscow. They discuss strategic relations between China and Russia and relations with the US in preparation of the Biden-Putin Summit in Geneva on June 16. China-Russia relations experience its highest levels in history now and cover a range of fields including political, economic, energy, infrastructure, industrial, military and strategic cooperation.

Monday, May 31, 2021

African Horizon: Real Estate Opportunities in Africa

In this program he shares some thoughts on real estate opportunities across Africa. First consider the region, country or countries you want to invest in whether it is north, central, east, west or southern Africa. Now is a buyer´s market and if you represent an asset management, investment or private equity firm do careful examination of laws, regulations and tax laws and if you look for a local partner then find someone who is humble with a strong financial, real estate and industrial track record who knows the local area well and understands the environment. In the event you represent a commercial real estate company or investor and if you consider entering the shopping mall market or other commercial real estate opportunities then carefully examine the urban environments or cities you want to invest in, and ensure that you understand the flow of the cities, how the markets function, the future growth trajectory, and perhaps learn from others who invested before you. If you are a private person or a family considering buying a vacation home or an apartment there are also many opportunities – then you may contact real estate agencies. There are many emerging growth regions now across Africa which experience major investments, therefore a range of opportunities emerge.

Friday, May 28, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Colombia - Risk Assessment

In this program he examines the political situation in Colombia in South America. In late April a protest movement emerged against a tax reform, which was dropped by President Duque and his government. However, the protests did not calm down and changed into a movement against social injustice, police violence and extreme poverty. Road blockades prevent exports and transportation of goods, and the political situation remains tense. On Monday this week the National Strike Committee and the government reached a pre-agreement, a first step towards negotiations. However, going forward the government needs to show an ability to implement policies and reforms that drive real change to calm the situation.

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Asian Horizon: EU - China Relations

In this program he examines the recent decision by the EU to not ratify the Comprehensive Agreement of Investment (CAI) with China. This will not impact trade and economic relations. We likely see trade increase between the EU and China in the coming years. Currently we also see increased infrastructure connections and economic trade corridors emerging between China and the EU. However, this decision reflects the current environment in relations between the EU and China, and this is not healthy and conducive for good relations in the long term. Brussels should rethink and increase dialogue with China to improve understanding and manage relations with China in a balanced manner.

Monday, May 24, 2021

African Horizon: Infrastructure and Logistics in Kenya, Uganda, DRC and South Sudan

In this program he examines infrastructure developments across Kenya, Uganda and into DRC and South Sudan. Recently Kenya and Uganda reached an agreement to extend the railway from Malaba along the Kenya - Uganda border to Kampala in Uganda. Today the railway extends from Mombasa along the Kenyan coastline to Nairobi and onwards to the Naivasha Inland Container Depot (ICD) and from there they will build a link railway to the existing railway station in Longonot. Currently they are upgrading the 460 km old railway from Longonot to Malaba by the border with Uganda. From Tororo along the Malaba - Kampala railcorridor - Uganda with partners will build a railway to Gulu in northern Uganda where there is a logistics hub. From Gulu they could also build an additional railway corridor into South Sudan in the future to reach Juba. Uganda also plans to build a railway from Kampala onwards to Kasese near the border with DRC. There are also concrete plans to build roads from Uganda into DRC. That connect with the railway corridor built from Kenya. This enables logistics to be transported from Mombasa in Kenya through Uganda and into DRC. These infrastructure plans will take approximately 5 years to complete and will drive economic growth in the future.

Friday, May 21, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: War between Israel and Hamas - Strategic Assessment

In this program he provides a strategic assessment of the war between Israel and Hamas. He reflects on various questions and examines what needs to happen for peace and stability to develop in the region in the long-term. Why is Hamas shooting rockets at Israel? How long will this war continue? What are the implications of this war? Unless Israel and the Palestinians are able to reach a two-state solution with Jerusalem as the capital for both countries, this situation with recurring wars between Israel and Hamas will only continue. That only creates permanent conflict for Israel and the Palestinians. Therefore, the only way to create long-term peace and stability is for the Israeli government and Hamas to cease hostilities immediately, and for the Israeli government and the Palestinians to start final status negotiations toward a two-state solution as quickly as possible. Consequently, when Israel recognizes a Palestinian state and a Palestinian state recognizes Israel we will see a new future in the region.

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Asian Horizon: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

In this program he examines the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is major economic corridor providing infrastructure connections with a highway from Kashgar in Xinjang in western China across Pakistan to Gwadar along Pakistan´s southern coastline. CPEC includes agricultural, industrial and energy and railroad projects, Special Economic Zones (SEZs), logistics clusters, and educational programs. Pakistan also improves infrastructure connections with Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asian countries into CPEC. This regional strategy transforms CPEC into an infrastructure corridor also for Iran, Afghanistan & Central Asian countries.

Monday, May 17, 2021

African Horizon: Ports, Logistics and Supply Chain Corridors in Southern Africa

In this program he examines various ports, logistics operations and supply chain corridors in Southern Africa - particularly in Mozambique, South Africa and Namibia. What considerations should you make when planning your logistics operations? How is the security situation from the port to your logistics destination? Do you have alternative ports and supply chain corridors in mind? What should you consider when selecting your logistics partner? These are some of the questions he reflects on in this program.

Friday, May 14, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Leadership - Part 3: Operational Level

In this program he presents part 3 of a three-part series focusing on leadership. In this video he focuses on the operational level and specifically the country manager´s role when operating on the ground across Africa, Asia, the Middle East or Latin America. He shares his insights on what you should look for when you recruit a country manager, and what it is important for a country manager to understand and focus on. This program is useful for global companies or corporations operating around the world, or companies planning to start international operations in one or several countries.

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Asian Horizon: India - Strategic Forecast

In this program he examines the current situation and provides a strategic forecast for India. Prime Minister Modi came to power in 2014, but India failed to take major steps since then. Strategically, India did not implement policies and reforms to create strong economic development. Regionally, India´s conflictual relations with its neighbors prevent India from building strategic economic infrastructure corridors to the Middle East, Central Asia, Northeast Asia & Southeast Asia. India needs a strategic rethink to recalibrate its regional policies and strategic economic development. In the event that BJP wins the general election in May 2024, which may happen, we likely see more of current policies cementing status quo until 2030.

Monday, May 10, 2021

African Horizon: Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan Opens New Era

In this program he shares his reflections on recent developments in Tanzania and East Africa after Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was sworn into office on March 19. She already signed deals with Uganda and Kenya after only seven weeks in office. He examines the recent energy and infrastructure deals she signed with President Museveni in Uganda and President Kenyatta in Kenya this week. He also examines the need to build a security buffer zone along Tanzania´s border with Mozambique as Tanzania and partners probably start development on a new LNG facility near Lindi in southern Tanzania next year.

Friday, May 7, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Leadership Series - Part 2: Executive Level

In this program he presents part 2 of a three-part series focusing on leadership. In this video he focuses on the exeutive level. He provides one key recommendation: Companies should have a Chief Geopolitical Officer (CGO) in the executive leadership group. A CGO should have a range of functions, and he explains a few key functions. This video is useful to those companies which seek to strengthen their geopolitical competence and capacity on the executive leadership level. With a CGO, companies increase their ability to coordinate, communicate and facilitate increased geopolitical understanding and insights on different levels inside and outside the organization.

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Asian Horizon: Saudi - Iranian Relations

In this program he examines the potential for improvement in Saudi - Iranian relations. On Tuesday last week Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia came with a conciliatory tone towards Iran. Will Iran and Saudi Arabia see improved relations? What are the implications of a Saudi - Iranian rapprochement?

Monday, May 3, 2021

African Horizon: West to East Africa Economic Corridor

In this program he shares his reflections on the need to develop an economic corridor from West Africa to East Africa. This corridor could be developed from Senegal and Guinea in West Africa across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, South Sudan and then connect into emerging economic corridors in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania to the East African coastline. He recommends that African governments enter into discussions with international financial institutions, construction companies, railway companies and companies with considerable experience in developing large infrastructure corridors in Africa. In addition he recommends that such a West to East Africa economic corridor also should include special economic zones and logistics clusters with manufacturing zones.

Friday, April 30, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Leadership Series - Part 1: Board Level

In this program he presents part 1 of a three-part series focusing on leadership. In this first video he focuses on the board level. He recommends that global companies and internationally focused companies should have a board member with knowledge, experience and an understanding for geopolitical affairs, dynamics and risks. This is relevant and useful when board of directors follow up existing business operations, and when they plan new international business expansion before making their Final Investment Decision (FID).

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Asian Horizon: Boao Forum and Chinese Strategic Thinking

In this program he examines the main themes in President Xi´s keynote address at the Boao Forum last week. He also examines central elements in Chinese strategic thinking going forward.

Monday, April 26, 2021

African Horizon: Kenya - Lamu Port - Infrastructure and Economic Growth

In this program he examines the opening of Lamu Port in northeastern in Kenya in June this year. Lamu Port is part of a wider economic corridor - Lamu Port - South Sudan - Ethiopia - Transport (LAPSSET) which connects Lamu Port with newly built roads across northern Kenya to South Sudan and Ethiopia. Road development continues in some parts of the corridor. There are also plans to build a pipeline and railway corridor. This opens up an important network of transportation and economic corridors in northern Kenya which connects into South Sudan and Ethiopia, driving economic growth in the future. This initiative is particularly important because northern Kenya lacks infrastructure, and thus this new LAPSSET Corridor provides new infrastructure and economic development in this region.

Friday, April 23, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Part 3: US Strategy - Rethinking North Korea

In this program he presents part 3 of a three-part series focusing on US Strategy. He examines and explains how consecutive US administrations continued a US strategy towards North Korea with sanctions and pressure. However this did not lead to its main intended result - namely that the North Korean government should relinquish its nuclear program. Rather this US strategy had a counterproductive result, which led to North Korea only increasing and advancing its nuclear, ballistic and military buildup. Therefore, he suggests that the Biden administration should rethink US strategy towards North Korea.

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Asian Horizon: Turkey - Strategic Landscape and Industrial Power

In this program he examines Turkey´s economy, infrastructure connections, industrial capacity and wider strategic landscape. He also provides a forecast for Turkey´s next presidential election in June 2023.

Monday, April 19, 2021

African Horizon: Nigeria - Risk Landscape and Infrastructure Plans

In this program he examines key railway projects under development in Nigeria connecting Lagos with the southern coastline to Calabar in southeastern Nigeria. In addition there is a railway project to connect Lagos to Kano in northern Nigeria, and another railway project planned from Kano to Maradi in southern Niger. There are also railway plans to connect Lagos with Apapa Port and Tin Can Island Port - the two largest ports in Lagos. These railway projects connect Niger and the northern regions in Nigeria to Lagos and onwards to Apapa Port and Tin Can Island Port enabling shipping and logistics connections.

Friday, April 16, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Part 2: US Strategy - Sanctions and Strategic Thinking

In this program he presents part 2 of a three-part series focusing on US Strategy. He examines US sanctions and strategic thinking. He explains how US sanctions lead countries to shift their focus toward China and other countries, and how this is counterproductive to US national interests. He argues that the US should change its strategic thinking and engage with countries such as Iran, China and Russia rather than use sanctions. When challenges arise in bilateral relations, the US may realize that it accomplishes more when relations are functional and working as the US may then engage, instead of when using sanctions. The recent strategic agreement signed by China and Iran is an example in point. Iran shifts focus towards China after experiencing US sanctions for years.

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Asian Horizon: India - Geopolitical Space and Trade Forecast

In this program he examines India´s geopolitical space and provides a strategic trade forecast. He explains how India´s domestic political environment and conflictual relations with its neighbors hamper India´s ability to build and develop important economic trade corridors through Pakistan, China and Bangladesh - to the Middle East, across the Eurasian continent, and Southeast Asia.

Monday, April 12, 2021

African Horizon: Risk Assessment - The Nile River Dam Crisis

African Horizon​​​​ is a weekly NRCI original series released every Friday. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in Africa. In this program he provides a risk assessment of the key dynamics in the Nile river dam crisis. He explains how the geography of the Nile River and the demographics of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia influence the current Nile river dam crisis in northeast Africa.

Friday, April 9, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: JCPOA Negotiations and Iran

In this program he examines the potential for resumed JCPOA negotiations after Ebrahim Raisi is inducted as new president of Iran tomorrow. Iran said it wants guarantees that all US sanctions will be lifted if they enter a new JCPOA agreement. The US negotiation team´s analysis assumes that the Iranians are so desperate to get a new JCPOA agreement to get some sanctions relief that the Iranians will relent. However is this analysis right? Iran appears more resilient than the US may think, and while US sanctions damaged Iran´s economy, the Iranian economy is stronger and more dynamic than the US seem to realize.

JCPOA negotiations most likely resume in the coming weeks or months. In the event that there is no agreement, risks increase again in the region. However, Iran said that if it is attacked militarily, then Iran will retaliate and there will be a full blown war. Therefore, it remains to be seen which direction this takes going forward.

Thursday, April 8, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Part 1 - US Strategy, The American Jobs Plan & Central America

In this program he presents part 1 of a three-part series focusing on US Strategy. He examines US strategy and The American Jobs Plan, which he argues should have an international component focusing on infrastructure investments in Central America to make it into an economic growth region. He contends that US international infrastructure investments should also focus on South America and globally.

Consequentially, he argues that by combining infrastructure investments in the US and internationally that would make The American Jobs Plan a historic US strategy to drive infrastructure and economic development both in the US and internationally.

Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Asian Horizon: Part II China - Iran Economic Corridor - Geopolitical Implications

Asian Horizon​ is an NRCI original series focusing on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in Asia. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen shares his perspectives and reflections. In this program he presents part II of the China - Iran Economic Corridor and he examines and explains the geopolitical implications of the historic strategic agreement reached by China​ and Iran​.

Monday, April 5, 2021

African Horizon: Mozambique - Cabo Delgado & Regional Analysis

African Horizon​​​​ is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in Africa. In this program he examines the deteriorating situation in Cabo Delgado​ in northern Mozambique​ with last week´s attack in Palma. He also examines the wider regional implications and forecasts what needs to happen going forward.

Friday, April 2, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Understanding Russia´s Economic Potential

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s founder and chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines Russia´s economic potential by analysing Russia´s geography, infrastructure planning, energy resources, pipeline network, mineral resources and industrial base.

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Asian Horizon: China-Iran Economic Corridor

In this program he provides a strategic forecast of the China-Iran Economic Corridor (CIEC). Mr. Corneliussen was the first person to present the term: China-Iran Economic Corridor (CIEC). He argues that CIEC emerges out of the 25-year strategic agreement signed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Iran´s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Tehran on Saturday March 27. In this video he examines and explains what he considers the most likely contents of the 25-year strategic agreement and he presents the three most likely geographic corridors connecting China and Iran into the China-Iran Economic Corridor (CIEC).

Monday, March 29, 2021

African Horizon: Suez Canal Blocked

African Horizon​​​ is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in Africa. In this program he examines implications of the blocked Suez Canal​, after the megaship Ever Given drifted and got stuck on Tuesday this week​.

Friday, March 26, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: EU-China Relations

Geopolitical Horizon​ is an NRCI original video series released every Wednesday. Geopolitical Horizon releases new videos every Wednesday before 7.30AM CET. NRCI´s founder and chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines EU - China relations after the EU​ imposed sanctions on China on Monday this week, and China​ reciprocated.

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Asian Horizon: Infrastructure Plans in Central and South Asia

Asian Horizon is an NRCI original series focusing on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in Asia. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen shares his perspectives and reflections. In this program he examines infrastructure plans in Central and South Asia.

Monday, March 22, 2021

African Horizon: Political Developments in Libya

African Horizon is an NRCI original video series released every Friday. NRCI´s founder and chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical risks, business opportunities, financial and security dynamics in Africa. In this program he examines political developments in Libya.

Friday, March 19, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Peace Summits in Moscow and Istanbul on Afghanistan

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original video series released every Wednesday. Geopolitical Horizon releases videos every Wednesday. NRCI´s founder and chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the peace summit in Moscow tomorrow and the peace conference in Istanbul in April - both focused on Afghanistan.

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Asian Horizon, Quad Summit; US Diplomatic Activity in Asia and US - China High Level Meeting in Alaska

Asian Horizon​​​ is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in the Asian region every Monday. In this program he examines the Quad Summit​ on Friday; US high level meetings in Japan​, South​ Korea and India​ this week; and the high level meeting between the US​ and China​ in Anchorage in Alaska on Thursday this week.

Monday, March 15, 2021

African Horizon: Energy and Infrastructure Projects in Tanzania

African Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series released every Friday. NRCI´s Founder and Chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical and economic trends, dynamics, risks and opportunities in Africa. In this program he examines energy and infrastructure projects in Tanzania, and their regional connections in East Africa.

Friday, March 12, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Political Tensions Resurface in Northern Ireland

Geopolitical Horizon​ is an NRCI​ original weekly video series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s Founder and Chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the political tensions in Northern Ireland, which resurfaced as the Loyalist Communities Council withdrew its support for the Good Friday Agreement, signed in 1998 to end the conflict in Northern Ireland​.

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Asian Horizon: Changing Dynamics in Indian Politics

Asian Horizon​ is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in the Asian region. In this program he examines the changing dynamics in Indian politics. For more information about NRCI, please visit our website www.nrci.no

Monday, March 8, 2021

African Horizon: Chinese Infrastructure Investments in Africa

African Horizon​​ is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in Africa. In this premiere program he shares some of his experiences from travelling overland by public bus across 28 countries in western, southern and eastern Africa and based on those experiences he provides his perspectives on the importance of Chinese​ infrastructure​ investments​ in Africa​.

Friday, March 5, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Implications of the US Military Strike against Shia-Militias in Syria

GeopoliticalHorizon is an NRCI original weekly video series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s Founder and Chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines implications of the #US military strike against Shia-militias in #Syria last week. He also examines the continued attacks against US military forces in #Iraq and how this is linked to the killing of IRGC General Qasem Soleimani.

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Asian Horizon: One Belt One Road

Asian Horizon​ is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in the Asian region. In this first program he examines the One Belt One Road strategy.

Monday, March 1, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Russian - EU Relations

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s Founder Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the worsening relationship between Russia and the EU.

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Changing US - Saudi Relations

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s Founder Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines changing US - Saudi relations. For information about NRCI, please visit our website www.nrci.no

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Dynamics and Risks in US - Iran Relations

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s Founder Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines dynamics and risks in US - Iran relations.

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Coup in Myanmar and Protests in Russia

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s Founder and Chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the coup in Myanmar and protests in Russia.

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Protests in Tunisia

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s Founder and Chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines recent protests in Tunisia.

Thursday, January 28, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Forecasting of the Coronavirus Pandemic

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s Founder and Chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines and forecasts future developments of the Coronavirus pandemic.

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Coup attempt in the United States

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s Founder and Chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the coup attempt in the United States on January 6.

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: GCC Summit

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s Founder and Chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the final settlement reached at the GCC Summit in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia.

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Geopolitical Horizon: Turkey and Mozambique

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s Founder and Chairman Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the US sanctions on Turkey and developments in Mozambique.

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Geopolitical Horizon: Locust Outbreak in East Africa and South Asia

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the locust outbreak in East Africa and South Asia.

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Geopolitical Horizon: Geopolitical Implications of Brexit

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the geopolitical impplications of Britain´s exit from the EU today.

Friday, January 31, 2020

Geopolitical Horizon: Strategic Warning - Coronavirus

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the impact of the coronavirus and what companies can do to mitigate this evolving and complex medical risk.

Friday, January 24, 2020

Geopolitical Horizon: Oman and Libya

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the situation in Oman and Libya.

Friday, January 17, 2020

Geopolitical Horizon: The Middle East

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the situation in the Middle East, after the US attack that killed Qasem Soleimani and Iran attacked US military bases inside Iraq.

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Geopolitical Horizon: India

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the recent protests across India and the economic, regional and geopolitical consequences of the Citizenship Amendment Act.

Thursday, December 19, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: US - China trade dynamics

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines US-China trade dynamics. Geopolitical Horizon: US-China trade dynamics - December 13, 2019

Friday, December 13, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Sahel region and West Africa

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the serious and dire situation in the Sahel-region and potential terrorism threat to surrounding countries in West Africa. In addition he calls for an international and holistic response to the situation in the Sahel-region and he argues that if the international community does not respond the situation may become a global threat.

Thursday, December 5, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Colombia

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the demonstrations and political unrest which broke out across Colombia yesterday, which follows similar protest trajectories in Peru, Equador, Chile and Bolivia.

Friday, November 22, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Brexit

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program filmed in London he examines Brexit and consequences of the two scenarios: Britain decides to leave or stay in the European Union.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: RCEP and India

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program filmed in London he examines the geopolitical and trade implications of India´s decision not to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Uzbekistan

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the strategic location and reform process in Uzbekistan.

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Chile

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines drivers behind the recent protests in Chile.

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Norwegian Risk Forum

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he presents and welcomes speakers and participants to NRCI´s 10th annual international geopolitical conference - Norwegian Risk Forum 2019 - which NRCI hosts tomorrow on October 17 at the Grand Hotel in Oslo.

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Equador

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines recent protests and its impact on Equador´s political situation and oil production.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Indonesia

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly videos series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he covers recent protests in Jakarta and Western Papua in Indonesia.

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: UN General Assembly Meeting and Greta Thunberg

Geopolitical Horizon is NRCI´s original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he covers the annual UN General Assembly Meeting and Greta Thunberg´s iconic call for action on climate change to state leaders and how she inspires children and young people around the world to form a global voice for climate change.

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Saudi Arabia

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he covers developments in Saudi Arabia after the unprecedented attacks against the Abqaiq oil processing facility and the Khurais oil field.

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Russia

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he covers developments in Russia with the production of a new LNG facility in northern Arctic Russia and the Meridian Highway extending from western Kazakhstan to Belarus across Russia´s Eurasian landmass portraying Russia´s geostrategic thinking.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: South Africa

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the worsening relationship between Japan and South Korea.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Japan and South Korea

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he examines the worsening relationship between Japan and South Korea.

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Ethiopia - August 21, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he covers developments in Ethiopia.

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Argentina and Mozambique

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original weekly video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this program he covers developments in Argentina and Mozambique.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Geopolitical Horizon: Persian Gulf, Hong Kong & Kashmir

Geopolitical Horizon is an NRCI original video series. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical issues around the world. In this first program he covers developments in the Persian Gulf, Hong Kong and Kashmir.

Wednesday, August 7, 2019